I recently created an op-ed for Adage called CES 2011: Welcome To The Year of Tablets and Digital Living Rooms which you can view here. This is a preview of what to expect at CES and how marketers might be able to leverage certain technologies unveiled at the annual electronics show. You can also read on below…
CES (Consumer Electronics Show) 2011 is almost upon us and like all gadget-obsessed technorati, half the excitement of an upcoming CES is trying to guess what new innovations will be unveiled to the public. CES 2010 appeared to be the year of 3-D televisions (fueled by the success of “Avatar” and other popular 3-D films) but adoption by consumers has been lukewarm at best. As Financial Times reports, price and need for 3-D glasses has made many consumers hesitant to purchase last year’s next big thing.
So with CES 2011 just weeks away, what can marketers start preparing for? My guess: tablets and connected TV sets.
Tablets
The iPad has been a runaway hit for Apple and helped create a new electronics segment sitting squarely in between laptops and netbooks. With Samsung also jumping into the tablet market with the Galaxy Tab, anticipation is high for other Windows 7-, Android- and Linux-based tablets from the likes of Dell, HP and others. So though we can expect tablets to soon be their own category, what does this mean for marketers? For one, it will continue to provide a fragmented market when it comes to campaign development. Apple refuses to support Flash, while Google (with their Android operation system) has been a huge supporter — even going so far as to integrate Flash into the Chrome browser. Then you also have the app vs. mobile web issue to take into account, which leads to greater fragmentation and cost to a marketer.
In addition, though the tablet market is technically more akin to the smartphone than the laptop, there will be mobile marketing-based opportunities for marketers targeting the “always on the grid” mobile consumer. Augmented Reality is one area that can benefit from the larger display screen and processing power of a tablet. LBS will also likely mature to provide more beneficial services for consumers outside of becoming a mayor of a restaurant.
And finally, Skype has already stole some pre-CES thunder by releasing its mobile video chat application for the iOS — iPhone 3GS, iPhone 4 and the iPad. Though Apple made an initial splash with its FaceTime mobile video chat app, it’s hard to see Apple, or anybody for that matter, denting the Skype armor considering the market share Skype has already amassed. And this market share is interoperable and across mobile, web and even the digital living room via connected TV sets. Skype, like it or not, will become synonymous with video chat just as Google was synonymous with search.
Connected TVs
The battle for the digital living room has been ongoing for a while and it’s now finally made it to the mainstream. This year it appears that connected sets and peripherals (i.e. set-top boxes) will be the big bet this year from OEM’s. With more than 200 apps in their store and 1 million app downloads, Samsung has both taken a leadership position in this space and helped validate the market. Though Google has also thrown its hat into the ring with its own Logitech-based set top box and Sony-based TV, they also have had a few problems to date. ReelSEO has a good rundown here. With Apple also selling 1 million units of their Apple TV in 2010 alone, it does appear that the consumer is finally ready for internet connectivity in the living room.
What again does this mean for the marketer? For starters, there is a shift happening from the desktop PC to the connected TV for consumers. The connected-TV environment will not only increase the expectation for interactivity with content but usher out the “passive” viewing experience. If you ever watch ESPN “SportsCenter” and notice the interactivity both on the left and bottom of the screen, this will likely be the future of how we view content in this connected format. Apps will allow for even more interactivity and contextual integration fundamentally changing how marketers will need to interact with viewers.
Though there are likely to be other cool gadgets on display, there’s one other technology that I hope will make an appearance — Kinect. Microsoft’s motion gaming device has been a blockbuster so far with 5 million units sold over the last few months. Though this has created an evolution in gaming, it’s providing a revolution in how people interact with digital information via the Natural User Interface (NUI). Just as consumers were getting used to touchscreen displays, we now have another shift to motion-based interaction and gestural control. If you have the time, it’s worth checking out the Kinect Hacks site to see how “hackers” are using the Kinect technology to create mind-blowing examples of everything from Predator type “cloaking” to the Minority Report navigation system.
With Microsoft’s Xbox Kinect and Sony PlayStation’s Move set to usher in the era of NUI (Natural User Interface) gaming, it’ll only be a matter of time until certain gestures become mainstream through popular motion-based games. Think the swipe of the finger on the iPhone now to interact with content but without touching an actual device. What was seen as the future in movies like Minority Report and Iron Man 2 is now becoming a reality and will help mature the Augmented Reality field even further.
Zugara’s Blake Callens had a previous blog post summarizing these new gaming systems at E3 and how they will usher in the NUI. But this post is more about the marketing behind these games and their respective videos. So below are a few videos showing Kinect and Move and the various games that will have your body and movements act as the controller.
Needless to say we’re excited about both systems and the evolution they represent for gestural interaction, the NUI and Augmented Reality.
After years of hype around Web TV and the “Digital Living Room”, it appears we’re finally ready to get connected in new and exciting ways. In this op-ed entitled “Ready for the Tidal Wave” written for Adweek, I tried to communicate just how large this digital ecosystem is set to be. You can read the entire adweek op-ed here or read it below.
Ready for the Tidal Wave?
Those of us on the fringe of emerging media and technology are often faced with the question, “What’s next?”
Mobile (especially location-based services) is obviously here to stay and will be the critical component to any integrated marketing campaign. Also, marketers seem to understand that augmented reality can be a useful and utility-based technology.
But the area about to explode? Internet-connected TVs with application stores. That is, TVs with the ability to both connect to the Internet and have interactive apps downloaded directly onto them by consumers.
There’s been lots of talk about the Battle for the Digital Living Room. Sony, Microsoft, Apple, Roku, Boxee and a host of other players are trying to rush out Internet-enabled boxes or gaming systems that will provide digital content and Internet connectivity on standard television sets. Cable providers are also trying to get into the game with partnerships with companies such as ActiveVideo that can stream content “from the cloud” to most standard consumer cable boxes. Even Google is trying to get into the game by modifying its Android OS for this new, connected digital living room market.
(There’s a great three-minute video that shows just how disruptive Google’s entry into the connected-TV environment can and most likely will be.)
Not to be left out, many electronics manufacturers that create TV sets don’t want to be without a chair once the music stops playing. So now you have companies like LG, Panasonic, Samsung and others also trying to bring Internet-enabled television sets to the digital living room as fast as possible.
Regardless, whether it’s the TV itself, a gaming system, set-top box or other connected peripheral, the Internet-enabled digital living room is upon us.
So with all this connectivity, what’s the end game for the consumer? Think of the still-exploding smartphone app market and apply that to your living room and TV set. It’s no secret that consumer electronic manufacturers are hoping to replicate the success of the iPhone app market by offering the same type of direct-to-consumer app ecosystem.
Consider these recent projections from In-Stat:
• U.S. shipments of Web-enabled consumer electronic (CE) devices that support TV applications will grow from 14.6 million in 2010 to 83.4 million by 2014.
• By 2014, over 59 million U.S. broadband households will own at least one CE device that supports TV applications.
• By 2014, the U.S. installed base of CE devices that support TV applications will be 136 million units.
As you can see, there’s a pretty high trajectory for this market.
But what of the potential pitfalls?
Well, similar to the entire mobile ecosystem, there might be app compatibility issues and, unlike “mobile Web optimization” that can act as a common bridge, the interactive television app market doesn’t appear to yet have a Plan B.
However, unlike mobile phones, most consumers don’t trade their TVs in every year or are tied to one carrier to determine what hardware they can buy. So, in this instance, you’ll probably see a few market leaders dominate the space and because of app purchases, stick with the same brand /compatibility for future purchases.
Content owners or brands that wish to create apps in this digital living room ecosystem will most likely need to go with the leaders or wait until standards are in place and uniformity exists (which is unlikely at this point, since every new emerging tech market seems to fragment).
You’ll also most likely see demographic splits where older viewers are more interested in passive viewing experiences versus younger audience viewers who are more apt to download apps that can create a more social, collaborative and interactive experience similar to online.
By replicating what already works for interactive online video on the Internet, “social TV” on connected sets will most likely start gaining traction. If you were at CES this past January, you might have also seen that almost every TV set manufacturer has a partnership with Skype to offer the service via sets with webcam integrated into the hardware or ability to add webcam via USB. I personally cannot wait to see connected apps take advantage of this video chat technology tied in with contextual information from shows people are watching.
Finally, there’s the whole mobile app market itself that is already offering TV-companion apps, remote control functionality and so on. It will be interesting to track how consumers will start using the sets, and where and how mobile apps will be used in relation to TV-connected apps or if they will most likely function together. I’m betting on the latter vs. the former.
However it plays out, there’s a good chance that you’ll soon “augment” your viewing experience with downloadable apps that can provide further context on a show, allow you to play games tied to content you’re watching, and create an overall interactive experience for your new customizable digital living room. The only question will be if the market dictates 99 cents for these connected apps as it did for mobile.
Gartner today released their annual Emerging Technologies Hype Report – you can buy the official report here. I’ve embedded the Hype Cycles form 2008 – 2010 so you can see how certain technologies are tracking. I suggest you check out the 1st image below to get explanation of how the graph is defined.
Hype Cycle Definition
2008
Note: As you can see below, Augmented Reality was looking at more than 10 years adoption by mainstream…
2009
Note: In one year, Augmented Reality went from more than 10 years to mainstream adoption down to 5-10 years.
2010
Note: AR Continues to climb so expect even more of it in Q4 2010 and all of 2011
Conclusion: AR has been on a unbelievable trajectory and will continue so with mobile and kiosk-based AR sure to capture the imagination of marketers everywhere – especially in 2011. Throw in Kinect and the adoption of ‘gestural controls’ in the digital living room, and I think you’re going to see much faster mainstream adoption of AR than predicted here. If you’re sick of hearing of AR already, I think you’re going to need to deal with it because it’s not going away anytime soon…
P.S. The webinar also had another interesting graphic showing a different view of information in the hype cycle. I personally think AR is transformational but that’s just me Embedded below.
Walt Mossberg’s iPhone 4 Review is up (embedded below) and it confirms what many people thought – iPhone 4 seems to be a great device but video chat is destined to fail given Apple’s recent moves in the marketplace. You can get a full rundown of iPhone OS 4 features here.
For starters, in order to use Video Chat on iPhone 4 you need to have someone else with the exact same device. Not 3GS, not 3G. Only iPhone 4 people can video chat with other iPhone 4 people.
You need Wi-Fi to run “Facetime”. This will rule out people video chatting on the go. In a fixed location most people would have a laptop with a webcam so why use a mobile device in this instance? You would need to hold it the entire time and the iPhone isn’t the easiest device to prop up for stationary chat.
No cross platform compatibility. In the review, Mossberg claims Apple is “going to open video chat software to other companies”. Bull. Shit.
Apple’s recent moves in the marketplace against Adobe and other companies shows that it definitely is not keen to play nice in the sandbox with others. In fact, I would not be surprised if Apple blocks other video chat software from running on iPhone 4 as to not compete with “Facetime”. The only way video chat will become big on mobile like it has on the PC is if there’s cross platform compatibility or unifying software (like Skype) that works across all systems and in this case handsets and mobile OS’es. This is frustrating for the consumer and it’s starting to feel like the 90′s again where Apple decisions nearly sunk the company. Replace Microsoft with Google and it’s the same scenario all over again.
On a final note, I’m starting to get the sense that Apple’s “Go at it alone” strategy is ultimately going to sink it since video chat won’t be exclusive to mobile devices and will need to be compatible across a connected TV in the living room, the PC and mobile. Skype is already making great strides here from software being available on all formats. There’s no denying Apple has clout in the mobile sector but do they really have the political capital elsewhere? I for one definitely think they do not. Would love to hear your comments or hit me up on twitter @kobrakai.
Disclaimer: I have an iPhone and I love it. It’s the best mobile device I’ve ever used. But, like others, I’m getting tired of the restrictions on my device and the device’s inability to play nice with others.
We Are Organized Chaos (WAOC) is Zugara’s (www.zugara.com) interactive marketing and advertising blog where we’ll be featuring some great projects and discussing upcoming trends in the digital world. Work — good and bad — will be critiqued. Hope you’ll enjoy reading our insights and thoughts on interactive.
Embedded below.
