We get quite a few inquiries involving mobile AR and pass on most of them. Why? For starters, we don’t feel like we should waste potential clients money.  There’s a gaping gulf between the practicality of current mobile AR and what’s shown in marketing driven or concept videos.  A great example of this is World Lens.  If you haven’t yet checked out this AR tech it’s a concept that is game changing – it will literally translate Spanish text into English text in your mobile viewfinder when you load the app and point your viewfinder at text.  But there’s a problem when you view the promise of the video and actually try the current execution.  I’ve tried the app and though the potential is unlimited for this technology, the experience is subpar.  I’ve included the marketing video for World Lens below and I suggest you watch that and then read this review from ReadWriteWeb which did a more formal review of the app itself.  In short, the execution doesn’t live up to the concept video and current user reviews on iTunes reinforce that.

Though World Lens is the type of mobile AR app that promises utility and will likely be game changing once the kinks are worked out, it’s the current crop of “iPhone Lite AR” mobile AR apps that have fueled the level of hype for AR that will be hard to overcome.  Though iTunes created an Augmented Reality section for these types of apps, most of them aren’t even true AR.  Most of them involve using a stationary image you place via your viewfinder on an object or use the viewfinder itself as the backdrop for the app.  The Star Wars Falcon Gunner game is a great example of this.  Is it true AR? Not really.  Though this is a fun game, when you use the AR option, it’s basically removing the Death Star in-game background and replacing it with your real world viewfinder background.  There’s no additional interaction from the game with the real world background so it really is “Lite AR” in that the AR function itself doesn’t provide any additional gameplay value or interaction.  Most of the iPhone Mobile AR games also use this same approach and it’s not helping to advance the mobile AR field one bit.  In fact it’s hurting the field and leading to underwhelming consumer expectations of mobile AR.

A recent research report from Forrester sums up what we’ve been saying for the last 2 years – that mobile augmented reality is very overhyped and not ready for primetime.  We’ve blogged numerous times about issues and limitations of mobile AR – processing power, battery life, development fragmentation (iOS / Android) and so on.  Though everybody in the AR industry will agree that mobile AR will one day become the focal point of all AR, it’s not there yet and won’t be for another few years.  We’ll likely start seeing some innovation in the mobile AR area in 2011 but it likely won’t be until 2013 or so that mobile AR really starts reaching its potential.

However, there are some mobile AR executions that do show potential and where the mobile AR field is headed.  Layar is the most prominent mobile AR developer and they’re doing some interesting things with their platform mostly as it pertains to enhanced information.  And I’m referring to executions like showing where the Berlin Wall used to be when visiting Germany vs. overlaying directional information in the mobile viewfinder which is still inaccurate and limited to current mobile handset technology.  Two of my other favorite mobile AR apps include Sunseeker and iButterfly and show that utility based AR applications can be developed with current technology.

The press often assumes that all of AR is mobile AR. But it’s not.  As even Forrester points out, web and kiosk based AR executions are much further along in terms of consumer adoption and you’ll likely see more of these executions in 2011 than others:

“According to Mr. Husson, mobile augmented reality applications are not delivering. There are more significant short-term opportunities to tap into with Web-based and kiosk-based augmented reality solutions and there is great potential for the technology in ecommerce.”

There’s a reason why web and kiosk based-AR is more practical for your brand right now.  With the web, you have the greatest reach for your AR application especially when you develop with Adobe Flash to obtain the greatest reach without the need for a proprietary plug-in.  And with kiosks, you have greater processing power and removal of consumer barriers (i.e. markers, webcams) to achieve innovative and engaging executions for retail, OOH, POP and event marketing. But with mobile you still have the limitations I listed above that are not going to be overcome in 2011, much less 2012.  Though tablets might provide some innovation in the mobile AR arena, web and kiosk-based AR will likely be your best bet for any AR initiatives you’re targeting to develop.  Even Connected TV sets and gaming devices that offer webcam functionality will likely be a more developed and practical platform for AR than mobile.  Microsoft Kinect with 8 million sales in it’s first 60 days is already showing quick adoption of AR in the digital living room.

In final, the PR value for AR is diminishing quickly for brands and doing an AR application or initiative just to do it, does not make sense anymore.  If I had a nickel for every inquiry we get where “I want to have the consumer point their phone at an old car and change it into X brand”, well I’d be able to buy a 99 cent mobile AR app.  AR can be a very useful technology for many different areas and industries and it’s contingent on brands and their agencies to look to utility, practicality and value over quick PR and concept reels for their AR needs.

CES (Consumer Electronics Show) 2011 is almost upon us and like all gadget-obsessed technorati, half the excitement of an upcoming CES is trying to guess what new innovations will be unveiled to the public. CES 2010 appeared to be the year of 3-D televisions (fueled by the success of “Avatar” and other popular 3-D films) but adoption by consumers has been lukewarm at best. As Financial Times reports, price and need for 3-D glasses has made many consumers hesitant to purchase last year’s next big thing.

So with CES 2011 just weeks away, what can marketers start preparing for? My guess: tablets and connected TV sets.

Tablets
The iPad has been a runaway hit for Apple and helped create a new electronics segment sitting squarely in between laptops and netbooks. With Samsung also jumping into the tablet market with the Galaxy Tab, anticipation is high for other Windows 7-, Android- and Linux-based tablets from the likes of Dell, HP and others. So though we can expect tablets to soon be their own category, what does this mean for marketers? For one, it will continue to provide a fragmented market when it comes to campaign development. Apple refuses to support Flash, while Google (with their Android operation system) has been a huge supporter — even going so far as to integrate Flash into the Chrome browser. Then you also have the app vs. mobile web issue to take into account, which leads to greater fragmentation and cost to a marketer.

In addition, though the tablet market is technically more akin to the smartphone than the laptop, there will be mobile marketing-based opportunities for marketers targeting the “always on the grid” mobile consumer. Augmented Reality is one area that can benefit from the larger display screen and processing power of a tablet. LBS will also likely mature to provide more beneficial services for consumers outside of becoming a mayor of a restaurant.

And finally, Skype has already stole some pre-CES thunder by releasing its mobile video chat application for the iOS — iPhone 3GS, iPhone 4 and the iPad. Though Apple made an initial splash with its FaceTime mobile video chat app, it’s hard to see Apple, or anybody for that matter, denting the Skype armor considering the market share Skype has already amassed. And this market share is interoperable and across mobile, web and even the digital living room via connected TV sets. Skype, like it or not, will become synonymous with video chat just as Google was synonymous with search.

Connected TVs
The battle for the digital living room has been ongoing for a while and it’s now finally made it to the mainstream. This year it appears that connected sets and peripherals (i.e. set-top boxes) will be the big bet this year from OEM’s. With more than 200 apps in their store and 1 million app downloads, Samsung has both taken a leadership position in this space and helped validate the market. Though Google has also thrown its hat into the ring with its own Logitech-based set top box and Sony-based TV, they also have had a few problems to date. ReelSEO has a good rundown here. With Apple also selling 1 million units of their Apple TV in 2010 alone, it does appear that the consumer is finally ready for internet connectivity in the living room.

What again does this mean for the marketer? For starters, there is a shift happening from the desktop PC to the connected TV for consumers. The connected-TV environment will not only increase the expectation for interactivity with content but usher out the “passive” viewing experience. If you ever watch ESPN “SportsCenter” and notice the interactivity both on the left and bottom of the screen, this will likely be the future of how we view content in this connected format. Apps will allow for even more interactivity and contextual integration fundamentally changing how marketers will need to interact with viewers.

Though there are likely to be other cool gadgets on display, there’s one other technology that I hope will make an appearance — Kinect. Microsoft’s motion gaming device has been a blockbuster so far with 5 million units sold over the last few months. Though this has created an evolution in gaming, it’s providing a revolution in how people interact with digital information via the Natural User Interface (NUI). Just as consumers were getting used to touchscreen displays, we now have another shift to motion-based interaction and gestural control. If you have the time, it’s worth checking out the Kinect Hacks site to see how “hackers” are using the Kinect technology to create mind-blowing examples of everything from Predator type “cloaking” to the Minority Report navigation system.

As Mobile Augmented Reality continues to evolve, it will be interesting to see (from a UI perspective) how these applications will show Augmented information integrated with the live mobile camera feed.  Cities are one natural environment for this and we’ve already seen how Layar is allowing people to see how the Berlin Wall looked, where it was placed, etc.  This is fine when there might be open space but how do you show the past on existing structures?  While browsing my RSS feeds, I came across these amazing photos from English Russia (image above) which are combining imagery to show elements of the city in the past with the city in the present. An iPhone app called Streetmuseum, created by the Museum of London, already partially accomplishes this by showing historical images in select areas of London (image below.)

Will this ultimately be how Augmented Reality will overlay information, imagery and video on existing structures? I’m curious to everybody’s else thoughts on the matter so welcome comments below or on Twitter @Kobrakai.

Google will be giving demonstrations of the new Google Goggles technology at the upcoming Augmented Reality NY and Augmented Reality LA meetups.  If you haven’t seen Google Goggles before, I suggest checking out the embedded video below.  This is a game changing technology and sure to be a killer app for any mobile device.  Both events are usually livestreamed so even if you’re not in either city, you can still watch the presentation…

ARNY (Augmented Reality New York) meetup is this Tuesday, 8/17 – more info here.

ARLA (Augmented Reality Los Angeles) meetup is this Wednesday, 8/18 – more info here.

Hype Cycle Definition

2008

Note: As you can see below, Augmented Reality was looking at more than 10 years adoption by mainstream…

2009

Note: In one year, Augmented Reality went from more than 10 years to mainstream adoption down to 5-10 years.

2010

Note: AR Continues to climb so expect even more of it in Q4 2010 and all of 2011

Conclusion: AR has been on a unbelievable trajectory and will continue so with mobile and kiosk-based AR sure to capture the imagination of marketers everywhere – especially in 2011.  Throw in Kinect and the adoption of ‘gestural controls’ in the digital living room, and I think you’re going to see much faster mainstream adoption of AR than predicted here.  If you’re sick of hearing of AR already, I think you’re going to need to deal with it because it’s not going away anytime soon…

P.S. The webinar also had another interesting graphic showing a different view of information in the hype cycle.  I personally think AR is transformational but that’s just me Embedded below.