With the surge in online Augmented Reality, we often get asked, “How many people actually have webcams?” Given webcams are becoming a standard accessory to new laptops (and desktops) we’ve spent some time compiling numbers that we’d like to share:
79% of laptops now have webcams. (source: PC world)
72% of 18-20 year olds own a laptop. (source: Pew Internet & American Life Project)
83% of college students own a laptop. (source: Student Monitor)
More than 50% of Gen Y owns a webcam. (source: Cisco)
As of March 2011, more than 40% of Skype minutes involve video to video calls (source: Skype)
Furthermore, on recent web-based Augmented Reality projects we’ve launched both on our own (Cannonballz) and for clients, we’ve seen on average approximately 78% of users with webcams enabled.
With the continued growth of video chat and Augmented Reality, it’s an inevitability that webcam’s will be a standard of any PC experience in the near future. Though most web-based Augmented Reality is a solo experience, with the growing popularity of video chat, we can expect to see Augmented Reality evolve to a one-to-one and even one-to-many proposition. The following press announcements from Google, Facebook and Skype help to show how video chat is integrating itself into the social experience:
Social Media is all the rage now, but interactive video chats will help evolve conversations and collaboration to an even more real-time experience. If you haven’t seen our ZugSTAR prototype, take a minute to check it out below to see how the interactive video chat experience can work from anything to Virtual Dressing Rooms to Telemedicine.
Augmented Reality has become a term now that’s an umbrella of sorts, covering everything from gestural interaction to projection mapping. AR has now gone beyond it’s literal definition of “animations in a live video feed”. When the animations occur outside of a video feed (or mobile device), is it not still augmenting one’s view of reality? Most projection mapping occurs under optimal circumstances (i.e. very dark areas so the projection can be seen) and is, at it’s core, an engagement mechanism (i.e. advertising). However, it does appears that the technology is evolving for more beneficial uses for the consumer such as mapping features of a car in a showroom so a prospective buyer can see the technical and mechanical benefits – inside and out.
Wherever you fall on this thought, you can’t deny that 3D Projection Mapping is continuing to evolve with some very engaging examples. The best two I’ve seen to date are for Lexus and Toyota…embedded below.
eMarketer recently had an interview with Catherine Moellering who runs the Tobe Report, a fashion industry publication that forecasts trends. There were a few important insights on Teen Girls and their shopping habits that are listed below:
Teen girls are motivated by what their peers are doing and what they’re wearing
You have to find a way to engage this consumer (teen girls) and keep her involved beyond sales promotions and coupons
It’s really about providing the tools on your site so girls will start to associate you, the retailer, as a great place for putting together their prom look
Bottom line – its important to engage the teen girl shopping demographic with social media, innovative tools, and other emerging media/tech they use in their lives. You can read the interview here.
Fascinating video from Kinect Hacks showing what Microsoft’s been working on with Natural User Interfaces (NUI). How soon this will be a reality is unknown, but it’s definitely making the future look that much cooler…
From Kinect Hacks is another hack showing how old school NES game Mike Tyson’s Punchout can work with Kinect. Now imagine what this will do for previous game titles. Hopefully somebody doesn’t get Kinect working with MAME or I’ll never be seen or heard from again…
Here’s some videos of some lighthearted moments where people are getting familiar with the new Natural User Interface (NUI) on Kinect…Nobody said adoption of a radical new gestural interface would be easy
The blog post below initially ran on AdAge last Friday, January 28th and you can view the actual post here. It’s no secret how we feel about the current crop of Mobile AR apps being overhyped to the point they’ll damage credibility for the entire AR industry, but read below and let us know your own thoughts on whether or not you agree…at least we’re content knowing Forrester Research shares the same opinion…
We get quite a few inquiries involving mobile AR and pass on most of them. Why? For starters, we don’t feel like we should waste potential clients money. There’s a gaping gulf between the practicality of current mobile AR and what’s shown in marketing driven or concept videos. A great example of this is World Lens. If you haven’t yet checked out this AR tech it’s a concept that is game changing – it will literally translate Spanish text into English text in your mobile viewfinder when you load the app and point your viewfinder at text. But there’s a problem when you view the promise of the video and actually try the current execution. I’ve tried the app and though the potential is unlimited for this technology, the experience is subpar. I’ve included the marketing video for World Lens below and I suggest you watch that and then read this review from ReadWriteWeb which did a more formal review of the app itself. In short, the execution doesn’t live up to the concept video and current user reviews on iTunes reinforce that.
Though World Lens is the type of mobile AR app that promises utility and will likely be game changing once the kinks are worked out, it’s the current crop of “iPhone Lite AR” mobile AR apps that have fueled the level of hype for AR that will be hard to overcome. Though iTunes created an Augmented Reality section for these types of apps, most of them aren’t even true AR. Most of them involve using a stationary image you place via your viewfinder on an object or use the viewfinder itself as the backdrop for the app. The Star Wars Falcon Gunner game is a great example of this. Is it true AR? Not really. Though this is a fun game, when you use the AR option, it’s basically removing the Death Star in-game background and replacing it with your real world viewfinder background. There’s no additional interaction from the game with the real world background so it really is “Lite AR” in that the AR function itself doesn’t provide any additional gameplay value or interaction. Most of the iPhone Mobile AR games also use this same approach and it’s not helping to advance the mobile AR field one bit. In fact it’s hurting the field and leading to underwhelming consumer expectations of mobile AR.
A recent research report from Forrester sums up what we’ve been saying for the last 2 years – that mobile augmented reality is very overhyped and not ready for primetime. We’ve blogged numerous times about issues and limitations of mobile AR – processing power, battery life, development fragmentation (iOS / Android) and so on. Though everybody in the AR industry will agree that mobile AR will one day become the focal point of all AR, it’s not there yet and won’t be for another few years. We’ll likely start seeing some innovation in the mobile AR area in 2011 but it likely won’t be until 2013 or so that mobile AR really starts reaching its potential.
However, there are some mobile AR executions that do show potential and where the mobile AR field is headed. Layar is the most prominent mobile AR developer and they’re doing some interesting things with their platform mostly as it pertains to enhanced information. And I’m referring to executions like showing where the Berlin Wall used to be when visiting Germany vs. overlaying directional information in the mobile viewfinder which is still inaccurate and limited to current mobile handset technology. Two of my other favorite mobile AR apps include Sunseeker and iButterfly and show that utility based AR applications can be developed with current technology.
The press often assumes that all of AR is mobile AR. But it’s not. As even Forrester points out, web and kiosk based AR executions are much further along in terms of consumer adoption and you’ll likely see more of these executions in 2011 than others:
“According to Mr. Husson, mobile augmented reality applications are not delivering. There are more significant short-term opportunities to tap into with Web-based and kiosk-based augmented reality solutions and there is great potential for the technology in ecommerce.”
There’s a reason why web and kiosk based-AR is more practical for your brand right now. With the web, you have the greatest reach for your AR application especially when you develop with Adobe Flash to obtain the greatest reach without the need for a proprietary plug-in. And with kiosks, you have greater processing power and removal of consumer barriers (i.e. markers, webcams) to achieve innovative and engaging executions for retail, OOH, POP and event marketing. But with mobile you still have the limitations I listed above that are not going to be overcome in 2011, much less 2012. Though tablets might provide some innovation in the mobile AR arena, web and kiosk-based AR will likely be your best bet for any AR initiatives you’re targeting to develop. Even Connected TV sets and gaming devices that offer webcam functionality will likely be a more developed and practical platform for AR than mobile. Microsoft Kinect with 8 million sales in it’s first 60 days is already showing quick adoption of AR in the digital living room.
In final, the PR value for AR is diminishing quickly for brands and doing an AR application or initiative just to do it, does not make sense anymore. If I had a nickel for every inquiry we get where “I want to have the consumer point their phone at an old car and change it into X brand”, well I’d be able to buy a 99 cent mobile AR app. AR can be a very useful technology for many different areas and industries and it’s contingent on brands and their agencies to look to utility, practicality and value over quick PR and concept reels for their AR needs.
I recently created an op-ed for Adage called CES 2011: Welcome To The Year of Tablets and Digital Living Rooms which you can view here. This is a preview of what to expect at CES and how marketers might be able to leverage certain technologies unveiled at the annual electronics show. You can also read on below…
CES (Consumer Electronics Show) 2011 is almost upon us and like all gadget-obsessed technorati, half the excitement of an upcoming CES is trying to guess what new innovations will be unveiled to the public. CES 2010 appeared to be the year of 3-D televisions (fueled by the success of “Avatar” and other popular 3-D films) but adoption by consumers has been lukewarm at best. As Financial Times reports, price and need for 3-D glasses has made many consumers hesitant to purchase last year’s next big thing.
So with CES 2011 just weeks away, what can marketers start preparing for? My guess: tablets and connected TV sets.
Tablets
The iPad has been a runaway hit for Apple and helped create a new electronics segment sitting squarely in between laptops and netbooks. With Samsung also jumping into the tablet market with the Galaxy Tab, anticipation is high for other Windows 7-, Android- and Linux-based tablets from the likes of Dell, HP and others. So though we can expect tablets to soon be their own category, what does this mean for marketers? For one, it will continue to provide a fragmented market when it comes to campaign development. Apple refuses to support Flash, while Google (with their Android operation system) has been a huge supporter — even going so far as to integrate Flash into the Chrome browser. Then you also have the app vs. mobile web issue to take into account, which leads to greater fragmentation and cost to a marketer.
In addition, though the tablet market is technically more akin to the smartphone than the laptop, there will be mobile marketing-based opportunities for marketers targeting the “always on the grid” mobile consumer. Augmented Reality is one area that can benefit from the larger display screen and processing power of a tablet. LBS will also likely mature to provide more beneficial services for consumers outside of becoming a mayor of a restaurant.
And finally, Skype has already stole some pre-CES thunder by releasing its mobile video chat application for the iOS — iPhone 3GS, iPhone 4 and the iPad. Though Apple made an initial splash with its FaceTime mobile video chat app, it’s hard to see Apple, or anybody for that matter, denting the Skype armor considering the market share Skype has already amassed. And this market share is interoperable and across mobile, web and even the digital living room via connected TV sets. Skype, like it or not, will become synonymous with video chat just as Google was synonymous with search.
Connected TVs
The battle for the digital living room has been ongoing for a while and it’s now finally made it to the mainstream. This year it appears that connected sets and peripherals (i.e. set-top boxes) will be the big bet this year from OEM’s. With more than 200 apps in their store and 1 million app downloads, Samsung has both taken a leadership position in this space and helped validate the market. Though Google has also thrown its hat into the ring with its own Logitech-based set top box and Sony-based TV, they also have had a few problems to date. ReelSEO has a good rundown here. With Apple also selling 1 million units of their Apple TV in 2010 alone, it does appear that the consumer is finally ready for internet connectivity in the living room.
What again does this mean for the marketer? For starters, there is a shift happening from the desktop PC to the connected TV for consumers. The connected-TV environment will not only increase the expectation for interactivity with content but usher out the “passive” viewing experience. If you ever watch ESPN “SportsCenter” and notice the interactivity both on the left and bottom of the screen, this will likely be the future of how we view content in this connected format. Apps will allow for even more interactivity and contextual integration fundamentally changing how marketers will need to interact with viewers.
Though there are likely to be other cool gadgets on display, there’s one other technology that I hope will make an appearance — Kinect. Microsoft’s motion gaming device has been a blockbuster so far with 5 million units sold over the last few months. Though this has created an evolution in gaming, it’s providing a revolution in how people interact with digital information via the Natural User Interface (NUI). Just as consumers were getting used to touchscreen displays, we now have another shift to motion-based interaction and gestural control. If you have the time, it’s worth checking out the Kinect Hacks site to see how “hackers” are using the Kinect technology to create mind-blowing examples of everything from Predator type “cloaking” to the Minority Report navigation system.
But like every great NEXT BIG THING, there’s a reality check that needs to happen. Kotaku has a great annotated video outlining what’s real in Kinect vs. what was part of the infamous June 2009 concept video launch. It’s interesting to watch to see what’s real and what’s still in store for the future. You can view the video here. On a side note, if you’re interested to see how people are ‘hacking’ Kinect, there’s a great site to check out called Kinect Hacks.
*Augmented Reality Shopping is not available on Kinect, but is available on Zugara.com
We Are Organized Chaos (WAOC) is Zugara’s (www.zugara.com) interactive marketing and advertising blog where we’ll be featuring some great projects and discussing upcoming trends in the digital world. Work — good and bad — will be critiqued. Hope you’ll enjoy reading our insights and thoughts on interactive.
