Sorry, for some reason we’re having trouble embedding the video. If you don’t see it above, you can view it on YouTube here.

Okay, so back to the question at hand: Why don’t we develop for mobile? The short answer? It’s simply not strategic to do so. Let me explain our thinking:

The Addressable Market Is Just A Fraction Of The Computer Market

Our shopping application functions like a mirror, so that means people need to have their screen, and their camera facing the same direction (AKA a forward facing camera). For the computer market, that’s just the way it works… but in the mobile space, that essentially leaves us with two consumer devices: the iPhone 4 and the iPad 2.

Like all businesses, we need to be laser focused and strategic with both our financial and human resources. So let’s look at where we can have a greater impact now. Let’s look at the potential consumer reach for PCs, iPad 2s, and iPhone 4s:

• PC: 1.5 Billion in use (note: as we detailed in a previous post, webcam penetration and usage is skyrocketing).
• Source: Intel
• iPad 2: 15 Million sold.
• Sources: In September, The Daily Beast stated that 30 Million iPads had been sold. Back in March at the iPad 2 launch event Steve Jobs noted that 15 Million iPads had already been sold.
• iPhone 4: 50 to 75 Million sold (note: we don’t know how many of these are replacements for a previously purchased iPhone 4).
• Sources: At the recent iPhone 4S event, Apple CEO Tim Cook noted that the iPhone 4 accounts for half of all iPhone’s sold. Back in March Steve Jobs noted that since 2007 Apple had sold 100 Million iPhones.

Okay, so let’s put the combined iPad 2 and iPhone 4 sales at the high end of that range: 90 million units. It’s an impressive number, but those sales totals are just 6% of the PCs that Intel states are “in use”… and it should be noted that Intel also states that PCs are selling at a rate of 1 million per day. And here’s another metric for you: 93% of digital traffic is consumed by PCs. That means that the entire Smartphone and tablet market (i.e. not just Apple’s two most recent product launches) accounts for only 7% of digital traffic consumption.

So, when looking at the addressable markets, it’s pretty clear that the computer has the upper hand.

It Would Be A Horrible Experience For The Shopper

For the sake of argument, let’s assume that the PC market didn’t dwarf the mobile market. Let’s assume everyone had a Smartphone and they all had forward forcing cameras. There’s still a rather large usability issue keeping us from developing for those devices. And that’s the arm length of the average person. If you noticed, in the video embedded above, the young woman is standing roughly 4 – 6 feet away from her computer. That’s because she’s visualizing if a dress’s style is right for her, so she needs to see her entire body. If you’re holding a Smartphone in your hand, you just can’t hold the phone far enough away to have that experience. And at the end of the day, if we aren’t providing an amazing experience for the shopper, than what the heck is the point?

Now I get it, mobile, especially the iPhone and the iPad get an overwhelming amount of media attention. Are they revolutionary products? Yes. I’m not debating that. Is the future bright for mobile? Of course. But that’s the future, and as a company we’re focused on how we can make the biggest impact in people’s lives today (and over the next 5 years).

Did you know that one day after download, only 20% of users come back and run an iPhone app? And after a month, that number drops to 5% (chart). For us, it’s not about producing an augmented reality app that people won’t use but will get us covered by the press. It’s about measureable impact. It’s about disrupting the way people shop online today, and providing them with a significantly better experience. On computers we can do that. On mobile devices, we can’t.

What do you think? Are we right? Wrong? As always, you can find me on twitter here.

According to this article, Nielsen Research states that 4.8% of Americans have a tablet (and the piece states that that number is even lower in the UK – 1.7%).  It’s also important to note that that number wasn’t broken down by device, so we don’t know how many of those Americans have the first generation iPad… That is, the iPad that lacks a front-facing camera (necessary for most AR). But odds are, it’s a solid chunk (if not the majority).

In my opinion, for Augmented Reality to advance we need to focus on creating applications that people will actually use today, not tomorrow.  It’s not about buzzwords, tech demos, and concept videos… It’s about using AR as a tool to create meaningful experiences for “real people”…

What do you think?  Should brands dedicate budget to tablet based AR, or should they be focusing on creating goal oriented web, kiosk, and OOH based executions with technologies that are available today (please note, I left mobile off that list for a reason)?

Or, feel free to contact me on twitter.

CES (Consumer Electronics Show) 2011 is almost upon us and like all gadget-obsessed technorati, half the excitement of an upcoming CES is trying to guess what new innovations will be unveiled to the public. CES 2010 appeared to be the year of 3-D televisions (fueled by the success of “Avatar” and other popular 3-D films) but adoption by consumers has been lukewarm at best. As Financial Times reports, price and need for 3-D glasses has made many consumers hesitant to purchase last year’s next big thing.

So with CES 2011 just weeks away, what can marketers start preparing for? My guess: tablets and connected TV sets.

Tablets
The iPad has been a runaway hit for Apple and helped create a new electronics segment sitting squarely in between laptops and netbooks. With Samsung also jumping into the tablet market with the Galaxy Tab, anticipation is high for other Windows 7-, Android- and Linux-based tablets from the likes of Dell, HP and others. So though we can expect tablets to soon be their own category, what does this mean for marketers? For one, it will continue to provide a fragmented market when it comes to campaign development. Apple refuses to support Flash, while Google (with their Android operation system) has been a huge supporter — even going so far as to integrate Flash into the Chrome browser. Then you also have the app vs. mobile web issue to take into account, which leads to greater fragmentation and cost to a marketer.

In addition, though the tablet market is technically more akin to the smartphone than the laptop, there will be mobile marketing-based opportunities for marketers targeting the “always on the grid” mobile consumer. Augmented Reality is one area that can benefit from the larger display screen and processing power of a tablet. LBS will also likely mature to provide more beneficial services for consumers outside of becoming a mayor of a restaurant.

And finally, Skype has already stole some pre-CES thunder by releasing its mobile video chat application for the iOS — iPhone 3GS, iPhone 4 and the iPad. Though Apple made an initial splash with its FaceTime mobile video chat app, it’s hard to see Apple, or anybody for that matter, denting the Skype armor considering the market share Skype has already amassed. And this market share is interoperable and across mobile, web and even the digital living room via connected TV sets. Skype, like it or not, will become synonymous with video chat just as Google was synonymous with search.

Connected TVs
The battle for the digital living room has been ongoing for a while and it’s now finally made it to the mainstream. This year it appears that connected sets and peripherals (i.e. set-top boxes) will be the big bet this year from OEM’s. With more than 200 apps in their store and 1 million app downloads, Samsung has both taken a leadership position in this space and helped validate the market. Though Google has also thrown its hat into the ring with its own Logitech-based set top box and Sony-based TV, they also have had a few problems to date. ReelSEO has a good rundown here. With Apple also selling 1 million units of their Apple TV in 2010 alone, it does appear that the consumer is finally ready for internet connectivity in the living room.

What again does this mean for the marketer? For starters, there is a shift happening from the desktop PC to the connected TV for consumers. The connected-TV environment will not only increase the expectation for interactivity with content but usher out the “passive” viewing experience. If you ever watch ESPN “SportsCenter” and notice the interactivity both on the left and bottom of the screen, this will likely be the future of how we view content in this connected format. Apps will allow for even more interactivity and contextual integration fundamentally changing how marketers will need to interact with viewers.

Though there are likely to be other cool gadgets on display, there’s one other technology that I hope will make an appearance — Kinect. Microsoft’s motion gaming device has been a blockbuster so far with 5 million units sold over the last few months. Though this has created an evolution in gaming, it’s providing a revolution in how people interact with digital information via the Natural User Interface (NUI). Just as consumers were getting used to touchscreen displays, we now have another shift to motion-based interaction and gestural control. If you have the time, it’s worth checking out the Kinect Hacks site to see how “hackers” are using the Kinect technology to create mind-blowing examples of everything from Predator type “cloaking” to the Minority Report navigation system.

• ARIS | iPad Curriculum
• Augmented Reality glasses are at least 20 years away | Augmented Planet
•  Using facial tracking but can’t figure out what for or why….Droid Does